Friday, July 28, 2006

Inherent Mistrust in Globalization

One of the most fascinating and interesting innate characteristics of the human species is the need to maintain control or power over another. Obviously, this is an evolutionary issue, which probably has its seeds within the alpha male pre-programmed behavior.

It is amazing to see the inherent mistrust in globalization and the fact that everyone goes along with free trade, World Trade Organizations and globalization as long as they feel they are getting more out of it and they are putting in. In other words most nations in theory in enjoy the benefits of globalization, but at the first turn of a negative sector rotation, industry change, trade route difference or even a little competition in the world marketplace and all of a sudden they no longer like globalization and start making noise.

It is interesting that even a little bit of change or adjustment can cause a nation to go into hyper-protectionism and he immediately raise tariffs and start a tit-for-tat mini-trade war. It is also human nature to try to get more for doing less. When you put these two innate characteristics together; that is to say that need to maintain control and wanting to get more for less you can see the problems you have with non-Western world thinking of win-win negotiations.

When trying to convince other nations to participate in free trade or globalization initiatives we must understand these facts and study the history behind the cultures of the different participants and how they affect their decision-making. Forcing globalization on a nation whose leadership does not understand the overall picture can lead to disaster and even war. Please consider this philosophical thought in 2006.

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Inherent Mistrust in Globalization

One of the most fascinating and interesting innate characteristics of the human species is the need to maintain control or power over another. Obviously, this is an evolutionary issue, which probably has its seeds within the alpha male pre-programmed behavior.

It is amazing to see the inherent mistrust in globalization and the fact that everyone goes along with free trade, World Trade Organizations and globalization as long as they feel they are getting more out of it and they are putting in. In other words most nations in theory in enjoy the benefits of globalization, but at the first turn of a negative sector rotation, industry change, trade route difference or even a little competition in the world marketplace and all of a sudden they no longer like globalization and start making noise.

It is interesting that even a little bit of change or adjustment can cause a nation to go into hyper-protectionism and he immediately raise tariffs and start a tit-for-tat mini-trade war. It is also human nature to try to get more for doing less. When you put these two innate characteristics together; that is to say that need to maintain control and wanting to get more for less you can see the problems you have with non-Western world thinking of win-win negotiations.

When trying to convince other nations to participate in free trade or globalization initiatives we must understand these facts and study the history behind the cultures of the different participants and how they affect their decision-making. Forcing globalization on a nation whose leadership does not understand the overall picture can lead to disaster and even war. Please consider this philosophical thought in 2006.

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

The Case for Bio Fuel Tax Incentives in the Market Place for Distributors

We have all heard of the tax incentives given to ethanol growers in the Midwest of the United States. Some have even called this corporate welfare although it seems to be presently money well spent in that it is helping us break our addiction to Middle Eastern foreign oil. It is also helping farmers and corporate farmers in the Midwest who have seen a tough time due to droughts and world market price changes.

The tax incentives and subsidies to ethanol producers, refiners and growers has sponsored a new industry and this is also helping now with alleviating at least some pressure on the supply and demand issues with regards to the price of oil. Of course with three dollar per gallon gasoline many consumers are not be leaving it. Nevertheless it is helping.

We must also give tax incentives to ethanol, biofuel and Biodiesel distributors and wholesalers if we wish to make sure these new fuels get to market. By doing so it pushes supply ramp up and increases demand. Since some Oil Companies are vertically integrated that is to say own stations and refineries, it serves them also.

This is how tax incentives to distributors and wholesalers can help us in the United States and trying to break our addiction to foreign oil. We have a goal to increase the amount of fuel that we grow and we are meeting those goals presently. But it will sure take a lot to produce that much, that is quite a bit of fuel, this nation uses lots of it.

Eventually we hope to have over 15% of all the fuel that we use as biofuels. We do not have the ability to make that much Bio Fuels right now, but that does not mean we cannot in the future. It would shave the issues of supply spikes temporarily; we will be helping the steady flow. But we must also realize that China is going to be thirsty and the World market for oil will be huge; need to move now to solve this. Please consider all these issues in 2006.

Monday, July 24, 2006

Red China Now Entering World of Industrial Regulations; The Party is Over

Is Red China finally entering the first world? Is China really interested in solving its pollution problems up of the interests of its major financiers? It appears that China is now putting forth industrial regulations on its larger business community.

Is this the start of an industrial revolution? Is China trying to head off an industrial revolution? Is China trying to actually level the playing field so it can be respected by the rest of the world? Are we seeing a transformation of China and its industrial power?

One has to ask these questions and they lead to so many more. For instance is China or eat about its polluted water supply and it's horrible air pollution? Is China worried about global warming? What do the business people think of all these new regulations because surely they will slow down the growth that China has been experiencing in the last 10 years? Or will this lead to new industries and environmental protection products and services?

It is great to see that China is finally addressing the issues of its water pollution and its air pollution and perhaps this might level the playing field so that other companies in other parts of the world can compete with China's mighty industrial capacity and growth.

This is good news for American companies and also good news for the Chinese people and peasants who were once forgotten. Apparently someone in China figured out that if all the peasants died from the pollution caused there will be no one to work and the growth will stop. What are your thoughts on this, please consider all this in 2006.

Friday, July 21, 2006

Korean Car Prices Rise as Import Autos Get Cheaper

Korean cars are getting more expensive while their international rivals are becoming cheaper, a survey finds. Thus Hyundai Motor is selling its new Avante VGT S16 Luxury, which went on sale last month, for W1.13 million (US$1=W952) more than the old model. The Kia New Opirus 3.8 is W4.79 million more expensive than the old model, and Ssangyong’s New Chairman 2.8 costs W1.17 million more. Among import cars, the trend goes the other way. Volvo’s new S60 diesel engine model is W15.57 million cheaper than the gasoline engine model. The new Ford Mondeo is W5 million cheaper than the old one, and the Escape 2.3 XLT costs W4.5 million less than the previous version. Both were released this year.


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Wednesday, July 19, 2006

India: Next Leader of the World

India: Next Leader of the World

India, officially the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by geographical area, the second most populous country and the largest democracy in the world. India has a coastline of over seven thousand kilometres, and borders Pakistan to the west, Nepal, the People's Republic of China and Bhutan to the north-east, and Bangladesh and Myanmar to the east. In the Indian Ocean, it is adjacent to the island nations of Sri Lanka, Maldives and Indonesia.

Home to the Indus Valley Civilization, a centre of important trade routes and vast empires, India has long played a major role in human history. Hinduism, Sikhism, Buddhism and Jainism, all have their origins in India, while Islam and Christianity enjoy a strong cultural heritage. Colonised as part of the British Empire in the nineteenth century, India gained independence in 1947 as a unified nation after an intense struggle for independence. The country has one of the most diverse populations, wildlife, geographical terrain and climate systems.

INDIA ECONOMY:

The economy of India is the fourth largest in the world as measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), with a GDP of US $3.63 trillion. When measured in USD exchange-rate terms, it is the twelth largest in the world, with a GDP of US $775 billion (2005). India is the second fastest growing major economy in the world, with a GDP growth rate of 8.4%, as of the first quarter of 2006. Wealth distribution in India, a developing country, is fairly uneven, with the top 10% of income groups earning 33% of all income. India's per capita income (PPP) of US$ 3,400 [8] is ranked 122nd in the world.

For most of its independent history, India adhered to a quasi-socialist approach, with strict government control over private sector participation, foreign trade, and foreign direct investment. Starting from 1991, India has gradually opened up its markets through economic reforms by reducing government controls on foreign trade and investment. Privatisation of public-owned industries and some sectors to private and foreign players has continued amid political debate.

India has a labour force of 496.4 million of which 60% is employed in agriculture or agriculture-related industries, 17% in mainstream industry and 23% in service industries. India's agricultural produce includes rice, wheat, oilseed, cotton, jute, tea, sugarcane, potatoes. Major industries include textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel, transportation equipment, cement, mining, petroleum and machinery.

India's large English speaking middle-class has contributed to the country's growth in Business Process Outsourcing (BPO). India is also a major exporter of software, financial, research and technology services. India's most important trading partners are the United States, China, UK, Singapore, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, Switzerland and Belgium.

Monday, July 10, 2006

Free Trade Agreement With Oman Disregards Best Interests of U.S.

Since the United States became a party to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994, U.S. construct of the Foreign Trade Agreement (FTA) has changed considerably. Such agreements now have a much more profound impact on state and local economies across the country.

Generally, treaties with foreign governments were a vehicle for regulating tariffs and quotas relative to the export and import of products, but within the parameters of U.S. law. However, since 1994, FTAs have expanded to include non-tariff barrier issues and regulated under the purview of international law.

Unbeknownst to most of the public regarding the Dubai Ports World agreement with the U.S., approved by the Committee for Foreign Investments in the U.S. (CFIUS) in February 2006, enabling the country of Dubai to take over port operations of six major U.S. east coast ports, was that the U.S. had been in negotiations for a FTA with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) since March 2005. While members of both houses of the U.S. Congress feigned shock that there was such a deal in the works, that FTA in particular provided the backdrop to allow such takeover of U.S. strategic assets, regardless of national security risks.

Since Dubai verbally agreed in March 2006 to sell its rights in the U.S. port operations to a U.S. entity, which to date does not exist in writing, the FTA with the UAE, of which Dubai is one of its seven emirates, has been put on hold. However, a similar deal with the country of Oman, also negotiated since March 2005, was approved by the U.S. Senate on June 28, 2006. The passage of the Oman FTA, still to be ratified by the entirety of the House of Representatives in July 2006, is considered to enable easier passage of several other U.S. FTAs pending, which include Peru, Thailand, Vietnam, as well as the UAE, among several others.

Unlike other federal legislation, however, the FTA is signed by the President prior to ratification, as President Bush did so on January 19, 2006 with the Oman FTA. Unlike most pending legislation, the Oman FTA is under the auspices of the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). The 2002 Trade Promotion Act allowed for “fast track” status before the Congress which hands over its authority to the President to negotiate the terms of the agreement. The President then hands over to the Congress the finalized legislative package. However, the Congress is not given the right to amend any of the agreement’s provisions but only to take a vote. Also, the Congress must vote upon its passage within 90 days subsequent to its formal submission from President Bush, which was on June 26, 2006.

Yet, due to the complex nature of such an agreement, the rush-to-ratification style lawmaking does little to clarify the voluminous rules and regulations for lawmakers. And passage of such legislation includes irrevocable provisions once the pact is signed. There are arguably three or more major areas of concern with the Oman FTA with the U.S.

At issue are the present labor laws in Oman, its continued boycott of products from Israel and the dispute resolution process which stands to override U.S. national, state and local laws. According to numerous national and international labor rights organizations as well as the AFL-CIO, Oman labor abuse practices are rampant. All workers are denied basic labor rights. They include the inability of workers to organize in order to impact fair wages and safe working conditions as well as humane treatment.

Oman has failed to measure up to the International Trade Organization requirements for fair labor practices. Additionally, 80% of Oman’s laborers are from the South Asian countries of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, and have no legal rights to demand any changes in labor abuses, as they are foreign nationals. The only stipulation in the agreement is that Oman enforce its own labor laws. Yet, U.S. FTAs with Communist countries or those previously under Communist regimes have far more stringent language concerning labor rights abuses, upon which the U.S. insists. According to U.S. Trade Representative spokesman, Stephen Norton, “We have no reason to suspect that goods made with slave labor would be imported from Oman into the U.S.”

Although Oman assured the U.S. during negotiations that it no longer abides by the Arab League Ban of refusing Israeli imported goods and would disengage from the boycott, such is not the case. Oman’s Directorate of General Customs Mohammed Nasser recently told the Jerusalem Post that “even catalogs of commercial products that mention Israel would likely be seized by Omani authorities.”

And the hot button issue which has not been publicly addressed by the Congress is the potential for U.S. law conflicts under the terms of the U.S.-Oman FTA. Deeply buried in Chapter 11 of the agreement along with Annex 2, establishes that commercial disputes be settled under the realm of International Tribunals. Therefore, commercial activity agreed upon which includes operations of seaports, stevedoring and loading and unloading of goods either by Oman or any foreign entity or country which buys any of Oman’s service contracts or proprietary company interests, would override local, state or national U.S. laws. No distinction is made between commercial interests and those considered strategic national assets of the U.S., with no reference to national security considerations.

The objective of these trade deals, specifically in the Middle East is for the U.S. to garner support with allied nations in the interest of ending terrorism, as is the case with Oman, which is geographically closest to Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. But it could as easily be argued that the U.S is throwing the proverbial baby out with the bath water in approving such lax controls and oversight in such a vast agreement.

And it also can be argued that such agreements with the third world will put the final nail in the coffin for U.S. workers in the textile industry. They cannot compete with slave wages, nor should they. The U.S. has led the way for workers’ rights and wages and in eliminating child labor. Yet, federal trade agreements without enforcement will only continue to erode away any progress realized for workers not only outside of the U.S. but on its very shores.

While much lower energy costs also remain attractive for U.S. multi-national corporations setting up shop in the third world, it does not excuse the U.S. from making demands in the interest of human decency over strategies to accumulate immediate profits. The waiving of 100% of the tariffs, in this case between goods and services flowing between the U.S. and Oman, does not alleviate such U.S. obligations as fairness and decency, which the U.S. has always represented.

While once the world’s watchdog on human rights, the U.S. has given new meaning to “free” trade in 2006. And it comes at the cost of not only the American worker’s quality of life but predominantly on the backs of those third world workers who remain without the right to take a stand. Worst of all, it is but another example of the flagrant failure of both houses of the Congress to realize the ramifications of its members’ inactions and laziness. For if lawmakers were given a questionnaire on the provisions of this latest U.S.-Oman FTA, rest assured that as many as 90% of them probably would take the Fifth.

Copyright 2006 Diane M. Grassi

Tuesday, July 04, 2006

Business and Market Overview on Brunei

Business and Market Overview on Brunei

Brunei's economy is dependent on oil and gas and is the third largest producer of crude oil in Southeast Asia after Indonesia and Malaysia. Brunei is also the world's fourth largest producer of natural gas. Brunei's current oil and gas reserves are sufficient at least until 2015. Thus, Brunei’s government has used its oil wealth for investments outside the country for future generations. Furthermore, the government seeks to develop the country's economy beyond on oil and gas but with little success.

Brunei’s GDP was US$5.2 billion with a GDP per capita of US$13,879 in 2004. The economy grew at an average GDP growth of 3.0% annually from 2000 to 2004 driven mainly by Brunei's export of oil and gas and therefore dependent by world oil and gas prices. Inflation was less than 1.5% in 2000-2001, experience deflation in 2002-2003 but inflation eventually crept at 0.9% in 2004. The government is Brunei's largest employer and many of its citizens prefer to work with the government. The country experienced increasing unemployment from 2002 to 2004 but remained below 5.0%.

The industrial sector (mainly oil and gas related activities) contributed towards 56.1% of Brunei’s GDP in 2004. The service sector contributed towards 40.3% while the agriculture sector contributed only 3.6% during the period. Main industries are petroleum, petroleum refining, liquefied natural gas and construction. Major agriculture products include rice, vegetables, fruits, chicken and eggs.

DEMOGRAPHY. Brunei has a small population of slightly more than 370 thousand. Brunei Malays are the largest ethnic group and account for nearly 70% of population followed by Chinese accounting for 15%. Others include indigenous people and immigrants who have settled in the country. Islam is the official religion of the country and 70% of the population practice the Muslim faith. Other religions include Buddhism, Christianity and indigenous practices. The official language is Malay while Brunei’s Chinese community often used the Chinese language within the community. The population is generally proficient in English since schools teach the language and used in higher education, business and the sciences.

Three quarters or 75% of the population live in the urban areas and mostly work in government services, oil and gas industry, wholesale and retail trade and construction. Major urban areas include the nation's capital Bandar Seri Begawan, Muara, Tutong, Seria and Kuala Belait. Poverty is practically non-existent in the oil rich nation of Brunei. Brunei's GDP per capita is half of Singapore but based on purchasing power parity (PPP) it is slightly less than Singapore. Nearly 70% of the households belong to the middle or high-income categories while the remaining 30% in the lower-income category.

INFRASTRUCTURE. Telecommunication services within the country well developed while reliability of services outside from Brunei is good. Internet access is available throughout many parts of the country but broadband services are limited. Towns well connected by roads and crosses the border into East Malaysia. Country served by single international airport at Bandar Seri Begawan.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE. Major trading partners include Japan, South Korea, Australia, US, Thailand, Indonesia, China, Singapore and Malaysia. Much of the imports from Singapore are Singapore's re-exports from other countries. Major exports include crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products. Major imports include machineries and equipments, vehicles and vehicle parts, consumer goods, foods, construction materials and chemicals.

CONSUMER USAGE OF TECHNOLOGY. Nearly all homes in Brunei have fixed-line telephones and the penetration of mobile phones by population was 40% in 2004. Brunei's general population have the financial means to install computers in their homes but the penetration in homes is low at 20%. Penetration of internet users is also low at 9% of the population or 34,000 users. Nevertheless, nearly all homes in Brunei have televisions and refrigerators.

RETAIL MARKET. Marketers into Southeast Asia often neglect Brunei as a potential market because of its small consumer population. However, the country has the second highest GDP per capita in the region after Singapore and depends on imports for nearly all of its consumer goods and foods. The estimated value of Brunei’s retail market in 2004 was US$390 million in 2004 of which foods accounted for nearly US$280 million. The "mom and pop" stores and mini markets dominate the retail industry alongside a few department stores and supermarkets. Consumers in Brunei often shop cross the border into Malaysia for wider choices of consumer goods.

FOOD CULTURE. Foods eaten by the Malays tend to be rice with spicy meat and vegetable dishes. However, the people of Brunei are accustomed to Indian foods due to the numerous small Indian eateries across the country. Thus, homes often serve fish, chicken or beef curry dishes. Popular food service establishments include Chinese, Indonesian, Indian, Thai and Japanese restaurants but interestingly few Malay restaurants. Among the younger generation, many are accustomed to western style foods served by the fast food outlets and bakeries.